Petrol subsidy ‘staying gone’, Oyedele says in London: what it means for you

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, has said there will be no return to the petrol subsidy, even as Nigeria heads into an election year. Speaking at Chatham House, the London think tank, on Wednesday, 21 October 2026, he said: “The petrol subsidy is gone and it is staying gone.”

GistMatrix watched the full session, which Chatham House streamed and published on its YouTube channel. The meeting was held on the record. Here is what the minister said about fuel, prices and your pocket, and what is still unclear.

Why it matters

The price of petrol feeds into transport fares and food prices across the country. Pump prices have been around ₦1,400 a litre this month, and calls to bring back the subsidy have grown, including from organised labour, as GistMatrix reported on 9 October. Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund also warned Nigeria against restoring it.

What did Oyedele say about the subsidy?

Oyedele said removing the subsidy had saved ₦15.8 trillion, about $12 billion, by the end of 2025. He said the savings now pay for higher wages, education, roads, power and social protection.

Anticipating questions about whether the reforms would survive the 2027 elections, he said a market-determined exchange rate and a subsidy-free petrol price could not be quietly turned back by a minister, because any reversal would be “visible to everyone immediately”.

He also said Nigeria now charges no taxes on petrol, so there are none left to remove, and claimed that pump prices are at least 20% to 30% lower than in neighbouring countries. GistMatrix has not independently checked that comparison.

Is the NNPC discount a subsidy?

No, according to the minister. NNPC Limited introduced a ₦66-a-litre discount at its retail stations on 1 October to mark Nigeria’s 66th Independence anniversary. In a statement on 9 October, the company said the discount would continue until 31 October 2026 at NNPC Retail stations nationwide and “does not represent the reintroduction of petroleum subsidy”. The government has asked for public transporters to be served first.

Oyedele told the audience that he had checked with NNPC that it would not bill the Federation Account for the discount, and that it comes out of NNPC Retail’s own margin. He argued that the queues at discounted stations mean the people who wait are the ones who need the saving most. “It is not a subsidy and it’s not a reversal of government policy,” he said.

What happens after 31 October?

That is not settled. Asked by the session chair whether the discount would be extended, and at what cost, Oyedele said “we’ll see what happens because this is volatile”, adding that fuel costs were not within the government’s control.

He linked them to the global oil market. If US President Donald Trump reached an agreement with Iran, he said, crude oil would fall below $100 a barrel within days and no intervention would be needed.

What about prices at the market?

Oyedele pointed to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) figures showing that headline inflation fell to 14.63% in September. But he said food inflation, at 19.6%, “remains too high”, and that inflation needs to reach “low single digits over the next coming months”.

He blamed low farm yields, post-harvest losses of up to 60% for tomatoes, weak storage, the cost of moving food and insecurity in farming communities. He also said illegal collections on the highways push up food prices, citing truckers who told officials that their budget for one trip carrying yams from the north to the south was ₦700,000.

Who is getting help?

The minister said the cash transfer programme now reaches more than 10 million households, paid digitally and verified with National Identification Numbers. He said the transfers would continue until incomes rise enough for families to manage on their own, and that agriculture is a priority because, by the government’s analysis, 81.4% of Nigerians in work are in farming and non-tradable services.

What else did he say?

• Reserves: gross reserves stood at $55 billion on 9 October 2026, which he called their highest level in nearly 18 years.
• Growth: he said the World Bank expects growth of 4.3% this year and 4.4% in each of the next two years, forecasts he called “too conservative”. The government is aiming for average growth of about 7% a year over the next five years.
• Borrowing: he said the next phase of growth would be financed by private capital, domestic and foreign, rather than more borrowing by the state.
• Budgets: he said the government would move to a single budget from next year.

What happens next

• 31 October 2026: NNPC’s ₦66 discount is due to end unless it is extended again. Watch for a statement from NNPC Limited or the finance ministry.
• November 2026: the NBS is due to publish October’s inflation figures, the next test of the minister’s promise on food prices.
• The campaign: the subsidy is likely to stay at the centre of the economic debate before the 2027 elections.

What are you paying for petrol and transport where you live? Tell GistMatrix.