Brazil election: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro neck and neck before 4 October
A Datafolha poll gives Lula 47% and Flávio Bolsonaro 45% in a likely runoff, a statistical tie with Brazil's first round less than a week away.
By John Christian Mmaduabuchi, Chief Editor
· · 2 min read
- Datafolha runoff poll: Lula 47%, Flávio Bolsonaro 45%, within the margin of error
- First round: Lula 40%, Bolsonaro 36%, both well short of the 50% needed to win
- Voting is on 4 October, with a runoff on 25 October if needed
The gist in 30 seconds
- Datafolha runoff poll: Lula 47%, Flávio Bolsonaro 45%, within the margin of error
- First round: Lula 40%, Bolsonaro 36%, both well short of the 50% needed to win
- Voting is on 4 October, with a runoff on 25 October if needed
Brazil goes to the polls on Sunday 4 October, and the presidential race could hardly be tighter. A Datafolha poll published on 24 September puts President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on 47% in a head-to-head runoff, against 45% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. With a margin of error of two percentage points, pollsters call that a technical tie.
Datafolha surveyed 2,002 people on 22 and 23 September. Its previous poll had the pair on 46% and 44%, so the gap has barely moved. In first-round voting intentions, Lula leads with 40%, ahead of Bolsonaro on 36%, with Augusto Cury on 5%, Ronaldo Caiado on 4% and Renan Santos on 3%.
Other pollsters see the same knife-edge. Al Jazeera reported that a Quaest survey had Bolsonaro narrowly ahead in a runoff, by 42% to 41%, while a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll had Lula in front by 46% to 45%.
A familiar rivalry
Lula, the incumbent, is chasing a fourth term. His main challenger is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who, Reuters reports, is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 election defeat to Lula. For many Brazilians, this feels like a rematch of the last election with a different Bolsonaro on the ballot.
Washington is part of the story too. The United States imposed two fresh rounds of tariffs on Brazilian products in July, and Lula denounced them as an attempt to influence the election through economic pressure.
How the vote works
A candidate who wins more than 50% of valid votes in the first round takes the presidency outright. If nobody does, the top two meet in a runoff three weeks later. On these numbers, neither front-runner is close to the first-round finish line, so Brazilians may be in for a long October.
Why follow it from Lagos or Kano? Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy and one of the world’s biggest democracies, so whoever wins will help shape trade and diplomacy across the Global South, Africa included.
What next: First-round voting is on 4 October. If no candidate crosses 50%, the runoff is on 25 October.
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John Christian Mmaduabuchi is a Nigerian filmmaker, creative director, and media professional with extensive experience in digital storytelling, visual journalism, and contemporary media. His Journalism interests span Nigerian and African current affairs, entertainment, culture, technology, lifestyle, media, and the people shaping public conversation. With a background in film direction and documentary production, he brings a strong visual and narrative perspective to editorial work, with particular attention to context, clarity, and compelling storytelling. John is also a creative entrepreneur focused on storytelling, entertainment, culture, and digital content. His professional experience across directing, cinematography, editing, media strategy, and emerging AI technologies gives him a broad understanding of how stories are created, distributed, and consumed in the digital age. At GistMatrix, John contributes to the development and presentation of timely, engaging, and relevant stories for a contemporary audience. His approach to editorial work is grounded in accuracy, context, responsible storytelling, and a commitment to covering stories that matter.
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