UK universities pull offers to Nigerian applicants as visa refusals double

UK universities are withdrawing admission offers to Nigerian applicants as Home Office study visa refusals rise, according to a Financial Times analysis of Home Office data reported by Vanguard and Daily Trust on 10 and 11 October 2026. The share of Nigerian study visa applications that were withdrawn jumped to 22.7% in the first half of 2026, from 4.5% in the same period of 2025.

The UK has long been a popular destination for Nigerian students, and a withdrawn offer can end months of planning and spending. To get a UK Student visa, an applicant must have been offered a place on a course by a licensed student sponsor, GOV.UK says. Universities say they are pulling offers because a stricter Home Office rule puts that licence at risk if too many of the students they accept are refused visas.

What do the figures show?

Across all nationalities, 10.5% of UK study visa applications were withdrawn in the first six months of 2026, compared with 2.3% a year earlier and 0.4% in 2023, Daily Trust reported, citing the FT. Universities said withdrawn offers were the main reason for the rise, which followed a doubling of study visa refusals by the Home Office over the same period.

Applicants from Pakistan and Bangladesh were hit even harder. The share withdrawn rose to 40.9% for Pakistan, from 3%, and to 23.5% for Bangladesh, from 7.1%, according to the FT figures published by Vanguard. About 15 universities are believed to have suspended recruitment from Pakistan this year, Vanguard reported.

Data from Enroly, a firm that processes visa applications for universities, suggests that almost half of UK universities have refusal rates above the 5% limit, TheCable and Vanguard reported.

Why are universities pulling offers?

Since 1 June 2026, a university that sponsors international students must keep its visa refusal rate below 5% to pass the Home Office’s Basic Compliance Assessment, according to the department’s student sponsor compliance guidance. The limit was previously 10%, Times Higher Education reported.

The guidance also introduces a red, amber and green rating. A refusal rate of 5% or more is rated red, and a rate from 4% to just under 5% is amber. Universities that breach the limit risk losing the licence that lets them recruit international students, Times Higher Education reported.

What are universities saying?

Sir David Bell, vice-chancellor of the University of Sunderland, said: “The recent and unexpected spike in visa refusals has prompted pre-emptive action in several universities.”

Jamie Arrowsmith, director of Universities UK International, said “visa processing has become markedly less predictable”, adding that many refusals “appear to rest on flawed, inconsistent and highly subjective reasoning”, according to Vanguard’s account of the FT report.

Professor James Miller, vice-chancellor of the University of the West of Scotland, called some refusals “extremely spurious”. He said the Home Office had offered “no real explanation [for the increase] other than concern about number of students claiming asylum”, and that some universities had “stopped recruiting from certain geographical areas to keep refusal rates below 5 per cent”.

What does the Home Office say?

A Home Office spokesperson said international students “make a positive contribution” to Britain, but added that “this must not be at the expense of recruiting responsibly, in turn protecting the integrity of our immigration system”, Vanguard reported. The department said it was offering universities “support where needed to improve recruitment practices”.

In September, a Home Office spokeswoman told Times Higher Education that “claims that the refusal rate has risen significantly across the board are inaccurate”. Home Office figures put the rolling 12-month refusal rate at 4.9% up to June, the publication reported.

What happens next

The rules tighten again next year: from 1 June 2027, universities will also need a course completion rate of at least 90%, up from 85%, the Home Office guidance says. Miller has warned that many universities could see overseas student numbers fall by more than 20% this year, and has called on the UK government to pause the visa metrics, Vanguard and Times Higher Education reported.

Nigerian applicants holding offers for the January 2027 intake may want to confirm their status directly with their university. Watch for whether the Home Office responds to universities’ calls to review the 5% limit as the new ratings take effect.